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Season record 1-3 –2.09
Arsenal have so far been very impressive in recording wins on the road against Everton and Celtic before returning home to open their season at the Emirates in impressive fashion. Whilst Portsmouth were always going to face a tough task in gaining any sort of result on the road, it was the easy manner in which Arsenal played despite Wenger rotating his front four with Diaby given the “Steven Gerrard” role in a 4-2-3-1 that is looking increasingly like Wenger’s favoured formation. But whilst the attack has gained all the plaudits, a key figure for the Gunners has emerged in William Gallas who looks back to his best after two frustrating seasons of trying to form an effective working relationship with estranged former team-mate, Kolo Toure. Now unburdened by the departure of Toure and the arrival of Belgium Vermaelen who has impressed with the speed he has adapted to the pace of the Premier League, he looks set to reach the heights and plaudits that fellow defenders John Terry, Jamie Carragher and Rio Ferdinand of the Big 4 enjoy.
With the defence looking solid it is hard to see how tonight’s opposition Celtic can overturn a two goal deficit. A week ago Arsenal were considered fortunate to have scored their two goals but whilst they may have had lady luck on their side, they never looked in danger of losing the first leg and I felt they had another gear in them should Celtic have managed to breach the Arsenal defence.
From a betting viewpoint, this is similar to the Portsmouth game and they really should cruise to victory. However, that view is complicated by the fact that this game is essentially the second half of the tie in which Arsenal hold a two goal lead and any bets would depend heavily on the starting line-up Wenger names. But he has already warned against complacency and I just get the feeling he will stay true to his words and name the strongest side to ensure qualification given the financial stakes involved. However he will have to make do without talisman Cesc Fabregas and speed merchant Theo Walcott.
Looking at the markets, this is similar to the Portsmouth game when they were priced much shorter. They are not as short as 2/11 in that game but would you take the 1/3 on offer?! For me that should hit but it is not my strategy to get involved with short prices even if they should theoretically hit with ease. So I’m left with the handicap and 2.5 goal markets to consider.
Without Fabregas it should be interesting to see how Arsenal cope but with a 4-2-3-1 formation and Song and Denilson both likely to be charged with protecting the back four as well as providing simple distribution to the front 4. Things should not change too much and if anything, they should be more direct. An interesting bet could be the corner handicap of +3 in favour of Celtic at 2.25. Last week in Glasgow, Celtic won the corner battle 3-2 restricting Arsenal and generally winning 53% of the possession count. With Celtic likely to look for a fast start and keep the pressure on Arsenal in terms of territory, they really should win the corner battle with the +3.
Pick:
Celtic +3 on the corner handicap 2.25 (Bet365)
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