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Betting on early season matches is generally to be avoided due to the lack of form and not knowing how new signings/managers will affect a team’s performance.
Pre-season friendlies are not a proper indication of how well a team is prepared for the beginning of a season. It is very difficult to equate a performance against foreign opposition at the best of times, more so when it is a game arranged for the benefit of playing new formations and testing players in different positions.
However, the fixture list will inevitably throw up some cast-iron games for you to bet on when you just know that even if a certain team played without a goalkeeper, they’d still win.
The opening weekend of Premier League fixtures has five fixtures worth punting on, in my opinion.
Chelsea v Hull City
Last season, Hull surprisingly got a scoreless draw at Stamford Bridge. However, Chelsea had earlier in the season beaten the Tigers 3-0 at Hull. A title challenging Chelsea should have the ability to get their season off to a comfortable start and easily brush aside a Hull squad destined for relegation.
Last season, Chelsea’s home record was pretty decent. In contrast, Hull’s away record, especially in the second half of the season, was terrible. There’s no doubt that Hull only survived in the Premier League due to the great start they made to the season. In the second half of the season, Hull won just one away game, which was at Fulham in early March. They failed to win in their last 11 games of the season. Everything indicates a facile win for Chelsea.
Aston Villa v Wigan Athletic
Aston Villa are a side capable of finishing fifth this season whereas Wigan will probably avoid a relegation scrap but will not get a sniff of the top seven or eight finishing positions in the league. They will battle in every game they play and will rely on getting points against the teams around them for survival, and beating those at the foot of the table.
Despite losing Gareth Barry to Manchester City, Martin Laursen through retirement, and Zat Knight to Bolton, Villa should have enough in their squad to launch another competitive campaign. The signings of Stewart Downing and Fabian Delph are shrewd.
Villa didn’t have a great finish to last season, gaining just 27 points from a possible 57 in the second half of the season, mainly through the loss of Laursen in defence. Wigan fared even worse, accumulating just 17 points in the latter half of 2008/09. this fixture last season ended scoreless, but Villa beat convincingly 4-0 at the JJB. This game might not be as easy for Villa, but with the home fans behind them, you can rest easy that Villa should secure their first three points of the season.
Portsmouth v Fulham
Initially, this looks a tricky tie to unravel. However, Pompey are a club in decline. They lost their influential manager Harry Redknapp, and with Glen Johnson, Peter Crouch, Djimi Traore, Noe Pamarot, Lauren, Jerome Thomas all having left the club, and just Aaron Mokoena and Steve Finnan coming in, the future does not look bright on the south coast. Furthermore, there is a lot of speculation about Sylvain Distin’s future. A home game against Fulham is just the type of game Portsmouth must win to survive. It’s a bit early in the season to be talking of must-win games but that the realilty facing Portsmouth.
Fulham, on the other hand, are a club on the upgrade. They have a solid manager in Roy Hodgson and a solid squad that didn’t pick up many injuries last season at all.
This time last season, Fulham were 9/4 to be relegated, now they are 12/1 — that’s how much the squad has improved in the last 12 months. Last season, they were terrific at home, but their away form left a bit to be desired having won just three times on the road. Hodgson will be looking to rectify that from the off this term.
Additionally, approaching this opening day fixture, Fulham have the advantage of two competitive fixtures under their belts in the UEFA Cup (winning 6-0 on aggregate against Vetra Vilnius). They will be fitter, sharper and eager to improve on last season.
Stoke City v Burnley
At just short of evens, Stoke are a sure thing to get their campaign off to a winning start.
They had a fantastic year in 2008/09. They amassed 45 points and finished comfortably above the drop zone. The highlights of their season were undoubtedly beating Arsenal 2-1 at the Brittania and two scoreless draws against Liverpool. They’re home record was pretty impressive, winning 10 games. Manager Tony Pulis will surely be aiming at maintaining that home record to ensure another season in the top flight.
Burnley were promoted through the play-offs, having finished fifth in the Championship. Their home record was pretty good, winning 14 games from 23 but their away form was very inconsistent. They won seven, drew eight, and lost eight and are the bookmakers’ favourites to be relegated. Burnley are in for a tough season. Their squad doesn’t contain the quality or experience needed to survive and their new signings don’t inspire confidence. Stoke have the definite edge in this match.
Manchester United v Birmingham City
Manchester United are always formidable at home. They lost just once at Old Trafford last season (United 1 Liverpool 4) and this season, they will be equally difficult to beat at home.
In their opening day fixture, United entertain Birmingham City, who finished as runners-up in the Championship. Birmingham are evens to be relegated straight back down this term so they face a difficult campaign. They have brought in several decent player to cope with the Premier League. Barry Ferguson, Lee Bowyer and Joe Hart are all good acquisitions for Alex McLeish. Top signing Christian Benitez will be under pressure to score goals and will attract much analysis. While Birmingham may just survive the drop, they will take time to get their act together and their visit to Old Trafford is coming far too early this season for them to give a proper account of themselves. At least they’ll get this tricky fixture out of the way early.
BET365 £1 accumulator pays 11.88/1:
Chelsea to beat Hull 2/11
Aston Villa to beat Wigan 7/10
Fulham to beat Portsmouth 9/5
Stoke to beat Burnley 10/11
Manchester United to beat Birmingham 1/5
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